Thursday, June 12, 2008

Predicting Postseason Outcomes

Baseball is made up of athletes, retired athletes, brains, mathematicians and wealthy men. Baseball always has many things going on at the same time. Whether it's the pitcher receiving signals from the catcher, catching and throwing the ball, making contact or adjusting on defense something is always going on. Like when you see Carlos Beltran getting ready to swing and then he rips the ball right to Chipper Jones, you didn't know that Larry(Chipper's real name) moved into that position a second earlier because you were to focused on Beltran. Baseball is a one on one battle(pitcher hitter) but also a team sport because if Larry wouldn't have shifted over before the at-bat Beltran's hit would've been a double. What I'm trying to say is that there is so much going on on the baseball diamond at the same time that the human eye can't possibly see it all. In order to go 162-0 you would need to succeed in every battle.

Baseball has so many facets that you can't account for the likes of injuries, playing conditions, comfort, the clubhouse spirit and of course luck. Most of luck are the things that I mentioned but there are other elements in luck that always vary. I believe Carlos Beltran is the least lucky hitter because every time I watch him play(I watch a lot of games) he hits the ball hard but just right at the fielders therefore producing a low average but a high LD%(Line Drive Rate).

You cannot predict what's going to happen in the postseason simply because there are so many procedures happening at once that it's impossible a certain team will succeed in all of them. This is luck. There's so much of everything in baseball that anything can happen. There are just to many events. The playoffs have so much tension and pressure and are shorter series'(which all add to the "luck level") that really anything could happen. In the postseason there's no room for error, so if Larry wouldn't have moved over before that at-bat in a playoff game, no one would fault Larry or even realize what could've happened rather everyone would just be happy or sad that Beltran hit a line drive double down the third base line.