Trade Deadline Madness

This time of year is the busiest for all baseball executives. Everyone has at least contacted every GM in the league once and maybe even more than that. Every bad team is looking to capitalize on this situation that puts buyers at a disadvantage.  If the buyers think that they're "one player away" from the playoffs/world series they will go all out to acquire their guy therefore succumbing multiple top prospects to teams under .500 (the sellers).  Sellers also have to make sure their top competitors don't acquire their top guys.  To read first hand what GMs go through this time of year click here.  

A GM has a long and complicated job to do in July.  He first has to assess his team's needs which change on a daily basis because of injury, rookie emergence and waiver wire additions. He then has to gauge the talent being offered around the league.  He then has to evaluate his prospects and mark some off limits.  After, he has to call GMs around the league to either court offers for a player or ask about certain players.  You then have to match up the prospects and the money alongside he centerpiece of the deal and walla you have your trade.

Sometimes a trade like the Manny trade happens, where a team has to pays extra because of the fact that they have to expose of a certain player who's corroding their clubhouse and identity.  So instead of making a fair trade the Red Sox traded the superior player along with two prospects and $7M for a season and a half of the inferior Jason Bay.  The Red Sox are in some ways repeating 2004, where they traded the superior Nomar Garciaparra for the inferior Orlando Cabrera but somehow managed to win the World Series.  How did this work?  Because Theo Epstein is a genius.  He figured that although Nomar was the superior player he was extremely injury prone meaning that 30%-40% of the Red Sox performance at SS that year was coming from Pokey Reese.  Orlando Cabrera easily trumped 40% Pokey Reese and 60% Nomar, therefore the trade strengthened the Red Sox.  In Manny's case, he never gave 100%, he was destroying the clubhouse and was ditching important baseball games.  Jason Bay at least equals this level of performance if not trumps it.  Jason Bay is not that far behind Manny statistically and all in all he's a better fit for the current Red Sox therefore giving the Red Sox the advantage and not the disadvantage.  These are the kind of things that make Theo Epstein a genius.  

Analyzing Billy Beane's Trades

Billy Beane has already made two big trades and can make a few more before the non-waiver trade deadline this year. He has traded Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin to the Cubs for Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton and Josh Donaldson and has also traded Joe Blanton to the Phillies for Adrian Cardenas, Matt Spencer and Josh Outman. He still has a few more pieces to trade, his top level players that he wants to deal are Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer, Mark Ellis and Alan Embree. The less attractive options are Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby and Emil Brown. Billy Beane is overhauling/rebuilding this team. If he does manage to trade Justin Duchscherer he'd have managed to trade away his hole starting rotation from last year in a 6 month span.

Billy Beane is the master at finding diamonds in the rough and future star players in waiver pickups and in blockbuster deals. So if teams get ripped off how come they keep coming back for more? There are three reasons: A) teams focusing on their present before their future, B) no one's perfect(meaning that Billy's bound to make a mistake sooner or later, like in the Tim Hudson trade), and C) baseball teams are stupid.

So what did the A's get from these trades? They got two future extremely athletic 2nd basemen, a major league ready starter and a minor league very talented lefty, a couple outfielders with power and a young interesting projectable catcher. Altogether he got
seven young talented ballplayers for three pitchers. Altogether the pitchers are average, injury prone and below average. Meanwhile Billy Beane got a quarter of a baseball team. I can guarantee you that all of them will make it to the majors and at least 4 of them will become solid players while two will probably become stars. These are the kind of trades Billy Beane makes he just rips every team off(except for the Braves).

Playing The Percentages: Why the Mets didn't sweep the Phillies

It's a 5-2 ballgame, the Mets were ahead of the Phillies in the first game of an intense 3 game series between the two cross-state rivals. The top of the 9th inning began when Jerry Manuel called on Duaner Sanchez to close out the game because the Mets trustworthy closer Billy Wagner was inactive due to left shoulder spasms. Sanchez had been pitching excellently before that game but still hasn't regained his best stuff from before the taxi cab accident so the chances of him faltering are higher because he's not a shutdown pitcher now but he's pitched like one recently. He came out of the game with bases loaded and no out. Again the odds of losing the game increase. Joe Smith entered the game and induced a double play ball, Jose Reyes tries to rush it and gets no one out, 5-3. Pedro Feliciano comes in to face So Taguchi who hadn't gotten a hit in his last 16 at-bats, again leaving him with a higher chance of getting a hit in this specific situation because he isn't a .000 hitter he's a .230's hitter. He doubles, and ties the game. At that point you should make another bullpen switch but instead Randoph, I mean Manuel left Feliciano in and he let up 3 more runs. In the bottom of the 9th the Mets scored one more run to close the game out at an 8-6 Phillies victory. The two run run differential is actually the same amount of runs squandered by the Mets rookie 3rd base coach Luis Aguayo, who twice sent Endy Chavez home from second on David Wright base hits with no one out in the 3rd and 7th innings both with Carlos Beltran and Delgado due up and Endy twice got thrown out.

A smart, tactical manager would've gone with his top setup man from the beginning, Aaron Heilman. Also, seeing that Sanchez has excelled recently a smart manager would've given him a break knowing he could soon implode. He should've also left Joe Smith in because him and Heilman are the only relievers that did anything right that inning. But he opted to keep Feliciano in for the longest amount of time even though he caused the most damage. These are just some mistakes managers that don't manage from a percentage standpoint will make over the course of the season.

Luck

In the game of baseball it often happens that the expected(best) team doesn't win their division instead succumbing to an inferior team. How can you actually prove and weigh each team and show which one is really better? By using a method called the Pythagorean Method. This method was created by Bill James in order to show the best team while excluding all variables and luck from the equation. It equates your runs scored and runs allowed and produces a win-loss record. This formula reminded him of the Pythagorean Theorem we all learn in school and that's why he called the Pythagorean Method. The formula is:
This method has been changed and perfected over the years and is now a lot better.

I did a little research and found that teams that overachieved their Pythagorean Records by 4 or more games, experienced a lot of dumb luck, had little to no success in the postseason. Like I wrote here, the postseason entails much luck. What this shows is that teams which experience a great deal of luck in the regular season have a smaller chance of succeeding in the postseason because of the fact that they've already experienced a great deal of luck in the regular season.

A few extreme examples of this are the 1997 Giants, the 2003 Cubs and the 2004 Yankees. The 1997 Giants had a sub .500(more losses than wins) Pythagorean Record but somehow they still managed to win 90 games which was ten more than their predicted(Pythagorean) record. The playoffs didn't go as well for them. They were swept in the first round of the playoffs by the eventual World Series winning Marlins. The 2003 Cubs, well everyone knows what happened to them, cough...Steve Bartman...cough. The Cubs were supposed to have lost their division by 9 games but instead won it by a game, that's a ten game differential. The Cubs were then one win away from advancing to the World Series when Steve Bartman "interfered" with a foul ball. All the sudden the Cubs fortunes were reversed. The Cubs were winning 3-0 in game 6 with one out in the top of the 8th inning when this happened and then know Alex Gonzalez(their best fielder) makes an error on an easy play and then the next thing you know the Marlins were winning 8-3. Even going into the 7th game the Cubs should've won. Game seven's pitching matchup was Kerry Wood(2003 version) vs. Mark Redmon who do you think would win? Wrong, Brad Penny got the win. You can probably call this the worst possible thing that could've happened to a team in this situation or the least lucky thing and it actually happened.

The 2004 Yankees won 12 more games than they should've according to Bill James' Pythagorean Method and won the AL East. The Red Sox also made it to the playoffs that year as the wild card. These two rivals had a showdown in the ALCS. The Yankees were leading the series 3-0 and were leading game four 4-3 in the 9th inning with the most reliable closer ever(it's debatable) on the hill. The Red Sox not only won that game but then won the last 3 games to advance to the World Series where they swept the Cardinals. The Yankees having experienced a great deal of luck and success in the regular season then had luck turn against them in the postseason.

When receiving extreme amounts of luck during the regular season it's only fair if the exact opposite happens in the playoffs. What would you rather? The immediate taste of greatness(advancing to the playoffs) or the everlasting eventual greatness(winning the World Series).

4 Week Hiatus

I'm sorry for the break in my work.  I was on vacation for four weeks in a place without internet access.  I will continue writing posts starting tomorrow.  For now you guys can think about the two slanted Bill Beane trades, the chain reaction of the Sabathia, Harden trades and the odd pickup of Randy Wolf by the Astros.

Changes for the Better

The third week of the season started the firing season. Wayne Krivsky was fired as the GM of the Reds after a tremendously disappointing start to the 2008 season and replaced by Walt Jocketty. The trigger happy Reds owner had his best friend waiting in the wings and therefore looked for any excuse at all to fire Mr. Krivsky. This has been the worst move made so far this firing season but there's probably much more to come. Here's a list of GM's and Managers that have lost their jobs and others that might lose their jobs quite soon.

General Managers
1. Wayne Krivsky-Hadn’t been given a fair chance, can be read in full detail here
2. Bill Bavasi-One of the worst GM’s in baseball. This move was great for the game of baseball

Potential Goners
1. Omar Minaya-if the Mets continue to underperform he’ll be shown the door as well
2. Ned Colleti-Another moron, might be finished as a GM.....for life
3. Jim Bowden-The Nats need a guy like Josh Byrnes(D-Backs GM) to push them over the top
4. JP Ricciardi-Has done a solid to average job running the Jays but that doesn't cut it when your playing in same division as the Yankees and Red Sox

Managers
1. John McLaren-A fiery manager that lived and died with his team
2. Willie Randolph-Bittersweet. He wasn't the greatest but he wasn't horrible
3. John Gibbons-A horrible manager, should've been fired before the season

Potential Goners
1. Dave Trembley-Should be fired, I don't know if he will be

So that's the rundown. Any questions can be left in the comments section. There are a lot of horrible GM's in baseball mainly because owners are so stubborn that they don't let GM's do their jobs and build for the long run and instead make them go out and sign top free agents and it's basically impossible nowadays to win like that.

The Effects of Physics in Baseball

Last Monday my friends and I went to play basketball at the park. It was extremely humid outside. It made me into a horrible shooter. When playing in Efrat I can always hit the outside shot but Monday in New York I couldn’t hit any. I was so embarrassed that I couldn't hit any shots, until I realized that I was probably effected by the humidity. Being used to playing in the cool, windy and on the elevated hills of Efrat I guess made me suffer even more from the humidity.

Humidity weighs you down and the sun tires you out. In Israel the sun is very strong and in New York the humidity is ridiculous. I wonder if the Rockies have a hard time adjusting to New York weather also. Humidity weighs down your body and other objects and also messes with your vision. This could effect a baseball game very much. In a humid place the ball will drop faster because the ball will be denser. It will also make your arm tire faster because your arm is heavier and denser. All this together is a big deal and you can now understand why I played poorly while playing basketball in New York.

The Colorado Rockies have the ballpark most favorable to hitters in the MLB. Because of their high altitude the ball travels faster, drops sharper, travels further, flattens and unwinds. This means it’s harder to field, there are less foul balls(more balls in play), more homeruns and curveballs are basically ineffective at Coors Field. A ball hit 400 feet at Sea Level would travel 430 feet in Coors Field. This works the other way around in New Orleans since they are below Sea Level(everyone probably already knows that). The place with the highest altitude in North America is Mexico City and a ball hit 400 feet at Sea Level would travel 450 feet in Mexico City.

Why is any of this relevant to humidity? Because in 2005 the Colorado Rockies decided to experiment by putting all their baseballs in a humidor to make them more dense and therefore lessen the effects of Colorado’s high altitude. This works because, like I said above humidity weighs objects down so it would make sense for the Rockies to try this. Since 2006 the Rockies homerun totals are still favorable but have decreased heavily. I’m not sure about its other effects but Coors Field is still very much a hitter’s park.

Managers Fired

Willie Randolph requires his own post but in recent news John McLaren, (ex)manager of the Mariners, was fired. This proves that the Mariners are cleaning house. Hopefully they won't go for old fogies this time around, instead opting for GM 2.0(Theo Epstein started it). There is no correct way of judging a manager's influence/performance so I'll just follow the saying of "a manager is only as good as his record" as the main decider. Also because I have rarely seen the Mariners play in the last year therefore I don't know if McLaren was a good or bad tactition. The one thing I do know is that he is a very fiery manager, you can understand this once you know he was Lou Piniella's bench coach for many years. According to his record, last year he did a fine job with the Mariners and this year they're the worst team in the league. What changes have they made? They traded their farm system for Erik Bedard and signed a mediocre pitcher in Carlos Silva to a 4 year $48 million dollar contract.

So, what happened? It's called luck. JJ Putz was the best closer in baseball last year according to WXRL(Win Expectancy above Replacement Level) by more than .6 wins. Also, Miguel Batista had a career year last year at the age of 36. The Mariners are just all old and washed up. I hate to say I told you so http://baseballoutlook.blogspot.com/2008/04/season-predictions-al-west.html. Last year the Mariners were only a fluke and therefore they should just tear it all up and restart with Adam Jones(whoops he was traded for Erik Bedard). I'll be seeing(scouting) the Mariners this Tuesday night so I'll then give you guys my personal report.

Breaking News: Bill Bavasi's Fired

Thank God. Bill was one of those GM's where anyone could've done a better job than he did. When the high points of a GM's career are signing a 37 year old to a 3 year deal(Raul Ibanez) and trading 5 great prospects for a pretty good pitcher with great stuff(Erik Bedard) that so far hasn't played well for the Mariners isn't a good sign. He wasn't great at drafting but wasn't amazing. He drafted Brandon Morrow at 5 overall in 2006 and has also drafted Adam Jones, Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentein in various drafts. Hopefully the new GM will know what to do and trade off all of Bavasi's bad acquisitions.

All for One and ONE FOR ALL

If you look at recent seasons the best teams haven’t always been the ones to make the playoffs. Last year the Mets didn’t make it, the year before the White Sox had 90 wins and didn’t make it to the playoffs even after winning the World Series the previous season. The Red Sox also didn't make the playoffs in 2006. How is it possible for an excellent or even the best team in the league, in the Mets case not make the playoffs? A recent study has shown that team's chances are heavily decreased when they have even one Replacement Level Player(a freely available AAA player or the 25th man on a roster) in their starting lineup. Every starting player on a playoff team should at least have a WARP(Wins Above Replacement Player) of 3.

Lets take a closer look. Last year the Mets received a WARP of under 3 from second base, until Luis Castillo was acquired to solidify the position. They also received a WARP below 3 from Shawn Green in RF. That's not one but two everyday positions that lacked consistency(this is why I'm nervous for this year, RF,LF,1B,2B are all lacking). The White Sox had their catcher A.J. Pierzynski at 3.3 WARP, second basemen Tad Iguchi at 3.2 WARP, shortstop Juan Uribe at 2.6 WARP, leftfielder Scott Podsednik had a .8(no I didn't make a mistake), and I don't exactly remember who split time with Brian Anderson in CF, but all the other possible options were replacement level and Anderson had a WARP of 2.5 again, disappointing. That's FIVE guys that probably shouldn't have been in the starting lineup and were. Yo would think the '06 Red Sox would be more like the current Red Sox but they're not. Mark Loretta was horrible posting a 1.9 WARP while playing full time. CF was also not to good but only because Coco Crisp missed a good 2 months of the season and his replacements(Gabe Kapler, Adam Stern) are prototypical replacement level players.

As you can see not all playoff teams have the perfect guy at every position but the teams with more than one non ideal player starting have a very slim chance of making the playoffs and having success in the playoffs.